Opinion : The clash between Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump through the eye of Wall Street



When it comes to the presidential power every one can assume that nothing goes normally while crazy and wild campaigning is going on. It is true the presidential conflict will also affect the financial market but the question is ‘how’? Will it go upwards? Will the financial market hold the same position, or is the future of the financial market depend on the destiny?

Opinion : The clash between Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump through the eye of Wall Street

Jim Barnash, a certified associate economy planner of Wealth Financial Group, Buffalo Group which is located in Illinois. As per him, the presidential election years can be predicted as per the statistical data. It becomes easier to understand the downside risk and trepidation trends. 

The uncertainty is going higher with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in the running year’s race. The investors, as well as the Wall Street both are unknown about the subsequent. 

A historical Outlook
History shows that the presidential campaigns are interlinked with some unique patterns.  1912-2012 is duration when the Dow Jones Industrial average has repaid 10.1% in an average during presidential election years. The amount is almost same of average year’s returns. The history comes out in the research which is done by Jeremy Siegel the professor of finance at the Wharton School and also the author of the “Stocks for the Long Run” book which is acknowledged as a best seller book.  
 
The Dow has repaid just 2.1% when there is no necessity can be seen during a general election year. Investors get disturbed for not knowing when the regulatory and financial policy gets changed by the government.  

According to the experts, it is short to predict the certainty of financial market by the presidential campaigns. Only eight elections in hundred years as per them are not enough to make any prediction. The result fluctuates extensively. It has gone bottom in the year 1920 by 33% of loss whereas in the year 1928 it has touched top by going 49% success. In the last decade, 208 is the year which has seen 31% of loss which was directly connected with the economical crisis. Apart from these instances, the number also fluctuates by depending the time it is covered.   

Every presidential term comes with a different inclination as per the Michael Brady who is the president of Generosity Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. As per his verdict, the initial year gets bottom average repaid of the four-year presidential terms. The second year it goes a little up and the third year is the profound year with the highest average return. The forth and the election year it gets placed second lowest average return.  

If the pattern is to be believed, then the running year and the upcoming year is the weakest. Weak in the average return always does not make the market down. These are the years when the remuneration cannot be flooded like second and third year.

Brady’s research shows that in the last year the stock gets down by 1.2% in an average among the eight-year presidency, since 1900. It is though the current status of us. The presidency agreed that in these eight-years, by 44% of the duration, the running year is the affirmative year on Wall Street.
When the market fluctuates and has been going through the uneven position then what is the use of the data? The data normally assists the prior perception that the financial market does not follow the shadow step by step of the future. 

2016 is going to be a tremendous year for this reason. Though the trump campaign is getting stronger with times yet it is not apparent what would be his position after the Republican National Convention. 
A ton of doubt is now rising about Trump’s final decision of financial and economic policies. He though the nominee of the Republican campaign but he almost has failed to create a positive image due to the absence of framework in public office and repulsive statements. So, the future of Wall Street is still volatile.  

Both the republican candidates, Donald Trump and Bernie sanders have promised to update significantly the policies more than Obama’s presidential years. It is said by Paolo Pasquariello, an associate professor in the finance department of the Ross School of the Business University of Michigan. The policy details though did not issue by both of them yet, said Paolo Pasquariello.

In contrary when it comes to the democrat nominee Hilary Clinton the quantity is much more known. As per the national polls, Clinton is few steps forward than Trump till date and can beat the Republican candidate in the November election which can reduces the uncertainty in some cases, according to Pasquariello. He said that the agitation may diminish extensively under the Clinton’s administration if the presidential cycle runs by the Democrat candidate.

As per Pasquariello’s prediction, the market would be unbalanced till November. After Election Day the “relative calm” might come following the prior patterns. 

The Extreme Narrow Line for the Investors
Is the result of presidential campaign creating a huge impact on the financial market seriously? Or is it only a marketing strategy for making hype which would be beneficial for the financial market? It is not clear to any general investors.

As per Barnash, investors must consider and be aware of the reality. It is highly disturbing when the investors go through the financial market in general without knowing the details. An investor must know the market clearly, it should be understood by the prediction that who is going to be the world’s superior power in the field of economy and what will be the policies they implement, according to Barash. 

It is not so tough though to predict the result in some years just like 2016. According to Alan Dole, a Richmond, Virginia-based wealth manager, along with the presidential campaign the supplementary factors also get crazy.

The speculators and the investors are now looking for the short-time market policies due to the presidential craziness. As per the investor experts this year, it would be a time when the Wall Street goes through multiple ups and downs. 

As per Jim Kee, president, as well as the chief economist in San Antonio, for South Texas Money Management the general investors who are rooted with long-term policies for retirement and college are not concerned highly about the financial market for the election reason.  

He said that the market value is known to all. So, be optimistic and predict who is going to win the final election and what will be the consequences in the financial market. The thing entirely depends on prediction as no one knows the future.

Rescheduling the Course Is His Advice
It is suggested that stand on the position which is your status now on Wall Street market. Even experts cannot predict that the coming presidential election would bring fortune or misfortune to you. So, if you have a long-term policy then stuck into it instead drifting.

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